Business Statistics Demystified. McGraw-Hill

STEVEN M. KEMP, Ph.D . SID KEMP, PMP


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Business Statistics Demystified

PREFACE
Many people find statistics challenging, but most statistics professors do not.
As a result, it is sometimes hard for our professors and 
the authors of statistics textbooks to make statistics clear and practical for business students, managers, and executives. Business Statistics Demystified fills that gap. 
We begin slowly, introducing statistical concepts without mathematics. 
We build step by step, from defining statistics in Part One providing the basic
tools for creating and understanding statistical reports in Part Two, introducing the statistical measures commonly—and some not-so-commonly—used
in business in Part Three and, in Part Four, applying statistics to practical
business situations with forecasting, quality management, and more.
Our approach is to focus on understanding statistics and how to use it to
support business decisions. The math comes in when it is needed. In fact,
most of the math in statistics is done by computers now, anyway. When the
ideas are clear, the math will follow fairly easily.
Business Statistics Demystified is for you if:
. You are in a business statistics class, and you find it challenging.
Whether you just can’t seem to think like a statistician, or it’s the
math, or you’re not sure what the problem is, the answer is here. We
take you through all the rough spots step by step.
. You are in a business statistics class, and you want to excel. You will
learn how to use statistics in real business situations, and how to
prepare top-quality statistical reports for your assignments.
. You are studying business statistics to move up the career ladder. We
show you where statistics can—and can’t—be applied in practical business situations.
We wrote this book so that you would be able to apply statistics in a practical way. 
When you have finished with this book, you will find that
you can:
. Understand and evaluate statistical reports
. Help perform statistical studies and author statistical reports
. Detect problems and limitations in statistical studies
. Select the correct statistical measures and 
techniques for making most basic statistical decisions
. Understand how to select the appropriate statistical techniques for
making common business decisions
. Be familiar with statistical tools used in the most common areas of business
. Avoid all the most common errors in working with and presenting statistics
. Present effective statistical reports that support business decisions


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Our first thanks go to Scott Hoffheiser, our administrative assistant, whose
understanding  of  statistics,  proofreading  skill,  and  skills  with  Microsoft
Equation Editor® and in creating graphs with Microsoft Excel® were indis-
pensable,  and  are  well  illustrated  in  Business  Statistics  Demystified.  If  you
like  the  quizzes,  then  you  will  be  as  grateful  as  we  are  to  Anna  Romero,
Ph.D.    Professor    Mark    Appelbaum,    currently    of    the    University    of
California, San  Diego, was  the first person to  be successful in  teaching me
(Steve)  statistics  and  deserves  special  thanks  for  that.  Our  Dad,  Bernie
Kemp, a now retired professor of economics, offered some wonderful sugges-
tions, which improved the book immensely. More importantly, he taught us
about  numbers  before  we  learned  them  in  school.  Most  importantly,  we
learned all about the uncertainty of the world and the limits of measurement
at his knee. Our Mom, Edie Kemp, provided support, which allowed us the
time to write, always the sine qua non of any book, as did Kris Lindbeck, Sid’s wife.

Dave Eckerman and Peter Ornstein, both of the Psychology Department
at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, have supported the first
author’s affiliation with that institution, whose extensive research resources
were invaluable in the preparation of the manuscript of the book.


ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Steve  Kemp   is   a   Research   Assistant   Professor   at   the   University   of
North  Carolina  at  Chapel  Hill,  where  he  received  his  Ph.D.  in  Psychology
in 1993 from the L. L. Thurstone Psychometric Laboratory. He has taught
Statistics  at  the  Master’s  level  at  the  Nursing  school  at  UNC/CH.  Steve
does research in such exotic areas as neural network simulations of behavior,
situational  evaluations  of  behavioral simulations,  and  abductive  reasoning.
He is the inventor of the InSitu testbed (www.InSituTestbed.org). In previous
lives, he has worked in data processing, software development, technical writ-
ing,  advertising,  and  retail.  This  is  his  first  book.  When  not  writing  or
researching,  he  is  a  computer  programmer  and  statistical  consultant.  Steve
lives south of town with his cat, Eureka. Those interested in Steve’s research
or personal life can browse his Website: http://www.unc.edu/~skemp/

Sid Kemp, PMP,  is  a  certified  Project  Management  Professional  and  a
leading  expert  in  project  management  for  information  technology,  with
over  15  years  of  experience.  He  assists  Fortune  500  companies  and  major
governmental agencies in the deployment of new technology and in develop-
ing  and  deploying  custom  project  management  methodologies.  Sid  has
trained thousands of first-time managers and team leaders in PM—in public,
corporate, and government seminars. He has over 10 years of experience as a
trainer and  author of training programs and  manuals. Sid is the author of
two   other   McGraw-Hill   books   that   may   be   of   interest   to   readers   of
Business  Statistics  Demystified:  Budgeting  for  Managers  (2002)  and  Project
Management Demystified (2004).

HOW TO GET THE MOST OUT OF THIS BOOK
If you are just learning statistics, we recommend you start at the beginning,
and work your way through. We demystify the things that other books jump
over too quickly, leaving your head spinning. In fact, you might read
Part One before you look at other books, so you can avoid getting mystified
in the first place!
If you are comfortable with statistics, skim Part One and see if it clarifies
some of the vague ideas we can all carry around without knowing it, and then
use the rest of the book as you see fit. If you want to focus on performing
statistical studies and preparing statistical reports—or even just reading
them—then Part Two will be a big help. Part Three is a useful reference for
the more advanced statistical techniques used in business. And Part Four
makes the link between statistics and business interesting and exciting.

SIDEBARS FOR EASY LEARNING
In Business Statistics Demystified, we want to make it easy for you to learn
and to find what you need to know. So we’ve created several different types
of sidebars that will introduce key ideas. Here they are:
. Tips on Terms. Definitions and crucial terminology.
. Critical Cautions. Something statistical you must do—or must avoid—
to get things right.
. Key points for exam preparation.
. Survival Strategies. What to do on the job.
. Handy Hints. Other practical advice.
. Fun Facts. A little bit on the lighter side.
. Case Studies. Real-world examples that teach what works—and what doesn’t.
. Bio Bites. The authors’ experience—if you learn from what we’ve been
through, your statistical work will be easier.
. Quick Quotes. Bits of wisdom from folks much smarter than we are.









Table of Contents
Preface                                                             xi
Acknowledgments                                           xv
PART ONE         What Is Business Statistics?                           1
CHAPTER 1       Statistics for Business                                     7
Doing Without Statistics                                  7
Statistics are Cheap                                         8
Lying with Statistics                                        9
So Many Choices, So Little Time                     10
Math and Mystery                                          11
Where Is Statistics Used?                               12
The Statistical Study                                      16
The Statistical Report                                    17
Quiz                                                             17
CHAPTER 2       What Is Statistics?                                         20
Measurement                                                21
Error                                                            30
Sampling                                                      36
Analysis                                                       42
Quiz                                                             45
CHAPTER 3       What Is Probability?                                    47
How Probability Fits in With Statistics             48
Measuring Likelihoods                                   48
Three Types of Probability                              52
Using Probability for Statistics                        62
The Laws of Probability                                  83
Quiz                                                             84
Exam for Part One                                        87
PART TWO       Preparing a Statistical Report                       93
CHAPTER 4       What Is a Statistical Study?                         95
Why Do a Study?                                           97
Why Use Statistics?                                       97
What Are the Key Steps in a
Statistical Study?                                   99
Planning a Study                                         101
What Are Data and Why Do We Need Them?   102
Gathering Data: Where and
How to Get Data                                  104
Writing a Statistical Report for Business        107
Reading a Statistical Report                         107
Quiz                                                           109
CHAPTER 5       Planning a Statistical Study                       111
Determining Plan Objectives                         113
Defining the Research Questions                   113
Assessing the Practicality of the Study           116
Preparing the Data Collection Plan                116
Planning Data Analysis                                 118
Planning the Preparation of the
Statistical Report                                  119
Writing Up the Plan                                     120
Quiz                                                           123
CHAPTER 6       Getting the Data                                       125
Stealing Statistics: Pros and Cons                 125
Someone Else’s Data: Pros and Cons              127
Doing it Yourself: Pros and Cons                   129
Survey Data                                                132
Experimental and Quasi-Experimental
Data                                                   137
Quiz                                                           138
CHAPTER 7       Statistics Without Numbers:
Graphs and Charts                                     140
When to Use Pictures: Clarity and
Precision                                             141
Parts is Parts: The Pie Chart                         142
Compare and Contrast: The Bar Chart            144
Change: The Line Graph                               152
Comparing Two Variables: The Scatter
Plot                                                    154
Don’t Get Stuck in a Rut: Other
Types of Figures                                   156
Do’s and Don’ts: Best Practices in
Statistical Graphics                               160
Quiz                                                           171
CHAPTER 8       Common Statistical Measures                     173
Fundamental Measures                                 174
Descriptive Statistics: Characterizing
Distributions                                        179
Measuring Measurement                               195
Quiz                                                           205
CHAPTER 9       A Difference That Makes a Difference.
When Do Statistics Mean Something?         208
The Scientific Approach                                209
CHAPTER 10       Reporting the Results                              238
Three Contexts for Decision Support            238
Good Reports and Presentations                  239
Reports and Presentations Before the
Decision                                              244
Reports and Presentations After the
Decision                                              245
Advertisements and Sales Tools Using
Statistics                                             246
Quiz                                                         247
Exam for Part Two                                   249
PART THREE      Statistical Inference: Basic Procedures      255
CHAPTER 11       Estimation: Summarizing Data About
One Variable                                            257
Basic Principles of Estimation                     258
Single-Sample Inferences: Using
Estimates to Make Inferences                262
Hypothesis Testing                                    212
Statistical Significance In Business              227
Quiz                                                         236
CHAPTER 12       Correlation and Regression                       267
Relations Between Variables                       268
Regression Analysis: The Measured
and the Unmeasured                            273
Multiple Regression                                   281
CHAPTER 13       Group Differences: Analysis of Variance
(ANOVA) and Designed Experiments         285
Making Sense of Experiments With Groups   286
Group Tests                                               289
Fun With ANOVA                                        295
CHAPTER 14       Nonparametric Statistics                          298
Problems With Populations                         298
A Solution: Sturdy Statistics                       299
Popular Nonparametric Tests                       301
Exam for Part Three                                 312
PART FOUR        Making Business Decisions                       317
CHAPTER 15       Creating Surveys                                      319
Planning and Design                                  319
Conducting the Survey                               324
Interpreting and Reporting the Results        325
Quiz                                                         325
CHAPTER 16       Forecasting                                              327
The Future Is Good To Know                       328
The Measurement Model                             329
Descriptive Statistics                                  335
Inferential Statistics                                  337
Cautions About Forecasting                        340
Quiz                                                         344
CHAPTER 17       Quality Management                                346
Key Quality Concepts                                 346
Root Cause Analysis                                   348
Statistical Process Control                          353
Quiz                                                         358
APPENDIX A      Basic Math for Statistics                          361
APPENDIX B      Answers to Quizzes and Exams                 364
APPENDIX C       Resources for Learning                             366
Index                                                       369


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